CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-07-05T04:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-07-05T04:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20714/-1
CME Note: This partial halo CME is very faint but can be seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source is likely the eruption from AR 3047 seen best in SDO AIA 171 and 304 at 2022-07-05T04:01Z. This eruption is also visible in the SW quadrant of STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. The CME arrival appears to begin mid-day on July 7th with definite and strong rotations in all the field components and there also seems to be a shock characterized by a sharp increase in the total magnetic field and proton density. The end of this CME is not very clear due to the presence of a high speed stream which follows but a further slight enhancement of magnetic field and solar wind speed is noted to start around 2022-07-08T00:21Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-07T06:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-08T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: Lead Time: -0.57 hour(s)
Difference: -32.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-07-07T06:36Z
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